THE MAPUNGUBWE Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) on Friday hosted a webinar addressing the geopolitical shifts since President Donald Trump's election and the far-reaching consequences of his administration.

MISTRA is an independent think tank that takes a long-term view on the strategic challenges facing South Africa, the continent and the globe.

The discussion was centred on key political and economic developments, with a particular focus on South Africa and the broader African continent.

The webinar featured several prominent speakers, including Professor Linda-Gail Bekker, CEO and Co-founder of the Desmond Tutu Health Foundation; Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa; Dr Sandy Africa, Director of Research at MISTRA; and Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool, South Africa’s Ambassador to the United States. Their discussions examined the evolving dynamics of US politics under the Trump administration and its global implications.

Dr Africa acknowledged the unprecedented political landscape since Trump’s election. She noted that while the election was the result of a democratic process, the policy shifts under Trump were profound and far-reaching.

She specifically highlighted actions such as the expulsion of undocumented migrants, the withdrawal of foreign aid, and demands for countries like Ukraine to "pay back" for United States (US) support.

Africa posed a central question: Was this simply an aberration in American politics or the beginning of a new, more isolationist and transactional approach to global engagement? Her remarks set the stage for the subsequent analysis of US foreign policy under Trump and its implications for South Africa and the world.

Ambassador Rasool offered a profound reflection on the state of US-South Africa relations, beginning with a philosophical perspective on foreign policy.

He stated, "Foreign policy, like other policies, is like a telescope. It has two lenses: a lens of your values and a lens of your interests."

He explained that South Africa, unlike other countries that prioritise national interests, has historically placed its values at the forefront of its foreign policy. This, he suggested, was key to understanding South Africa’s approach to its relationship with the US, especially under Trump’s administration.

Rasool also discussed the continuities and discontinuities between the Biden and Trump administrations. He pointed out that while there were ongoing pressures from both, particularly in terms of geopolitical stances and multilateral engagements, Trump’s approach was notably different.

Rasool highlighted Trump’s tendency to challenge traditional multilateral institutions, like NATO and the UN, and his unilateral actions, such as imposing tariffs and questioning longstanding alliances. These actions, he argued, had significant consequences for global geopolitics.

One of the most striking points made by Rasool was the impact of Trump’s populist and nationalist rhetoric. He explained that the rise of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement was not just a political force in the US but had global repercussions, particularly in terms of white identity politics.

He observed, “There is an export of the revolution,” drawing a parallel between Trump’s rhetoric and the global rise of populist movements in Europe and elsewhere.

Rasool also discussed the strategic dilemmas facing South Africa in this new geopolitical environment, stressing the need for careful navigation. He emphasised that South Africa must be patient and avoid "panic" in its dealings with the US, ensuring that it is prepared with clear negotiating strategies and waits for the right moment to engage.

He noted that South Africa could play a pivotal role in global governance, particularly in the G20 handover, while managing its relationship with the US prudently.

Moreover, Bekker addressed the significant impact of US policy changes on HIV/AIDS funding. She highlighted the crucial role of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (Pepfar), a US government initiative launched in 2003, which has been instrumental in Southern Africa’s HIV/Aids response.

“Pepfar was born in 2003 at a time when the HIV/Aids epidemic in Southern Africa was at its peak,” Bekker said.

At that time, many countries, including South Africa, were heavily reliant on international support to combat the crisis. Pepfar provided access to life-saving antiretroviral therapy, which had previously been out of reach due to high costs. Although South Africa now runs the world’s largest treatment program, significant gaps remain.

Bekker warned, “We still need to find about one to two million people in the country who've never accessed antiretrovirals.”

She expressed concern about the potential setbacks caused by the recent pullback of US support, urging urgent action to prevent a resurgence of deaths and new infections that could undo the progress made over the past decades.

Sihlobo provided insights into the potential impact of shifts in US trade policies, particularly regarding the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

He noted that while South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US account for only about 4% of its total agricultural exports, losing duty-free access to the US market would have significant consequences.

Sihlobo explained that if South Africa were to lose its duty-free access, it would face a tariff rate of approximately 3%, which could undermine the competitiveness of South African agricultural products in the US market.

He emphasised the need for a more sustainable, bilateral trade relationship with the US, as opposed to the current unilateral engagement under AGOA.

Sihlobo also stressed the importance of diversifying South Africa’s trade relations and expanding markets beyond the US and Europe, particularly in emerging economies within BRICS and regions like Asia and the Middle East.

Bradlow placed the geopolitical shifts within the broader context of international financial systems and US foreign policy. He observed that Africa, while important, was often sidelined in the US trade and tariff negotiations, which primarily focused on US allies in the global North.

Bradlow also discussed the Trump administration's aggressive stance on international institutions, such as withdrawing from the World Health Organisation and threatening to pull out of the United Nations.

He noted that these actions could have far-reaching consequences for the international financial system.

Furthermore, Bradlow highlighted the historical context of US attacks on international institutions like the World Bank and IMF, noting that the undermining of these organisations began under Former President Barack Obama.

Despite these challenges, Bradlow pointed out that there were opportunities for Africa, particularly South Africa, to reshape its economic future.

He encouraged South Africa to focus on key issues such as debt, climate change, development, and food security, which are critical not only to Africa but also to global North countries.

#geopolitical-shifts

Trump’s isolationism and what it means for South Africa and Africa