Pirates ponder permutations to reach Champions League quarter-finals

Mihlali Baleka

Football is fickle at the top – something that Orlando Pirates will know all too well as they head to their CAF Champions League penultimate round group-stage clash.

Pirates will face CR Belouizdad of Algeria in their fifth game of Group C on Sunday afternoon (3pm kick-off) sitting on top of the group with eight points, one ahead of Al Ahly.

In simple terms, a win from that match, which will be hosted at Orlando Stadium, would be enough to sail the Sea Robbers to the quarter-finals since 2013.

However, if that doesn’t happen, coach Jose Riveiro and his team might have to dig deep and get a result when they visit the ‘Club of the Century’, Al Ahly, in their last group-stage match in Cairo.

But let’s start with this weekend.

Pirates – who faced Cape Town City in Premiership action on Wednesday night – will know the chances of a quarter-final berth after Al Ahly host Stade d’Abidjan in the penultimate game on Saturday evening.

With the Red Devils expected to win that match, three points would take them to the top of the group on 10 points, two ahead of Pirates, who’d have a game in hand.

Nothing other than a win is expected from the record 15-time African champions, but a disappointing draw and catastrophic loss would see Al Ahly remain second on the log.

Win For Al Ahly

Should Al Ahly win against Stade d’Abidjan, Pirates must grind out a win against CR Belouizdad the following day at home to qualify for the quarter-finals.

A win would see the Sea Robbers climb back to the summit spot and qualify for the quarter-final, leaving Al Ahly and Belouizdad to battle for the other last-eight spot.

But should Pirates somehow struggle to get a win, they should at least labour for a draw as that would still give them an edge – two points – over Belouizdad.

A win for Al Ahly and a loss for Pirates would be catastrophic. The South African outfit would drift down to third on the log as Al Ahly would assume top spot with 10 points, one ahead of Belouizdad.

Draw For Al Ahly

Should Al Ahly drop two points at home to D’Abidjan, a win for Pirates would, again, see them retain their top position and qualify for a last-eight spot.

However, should Al Ahly draw, and Pirates draw, that’d ensure that Pirates hold the top position with nine points, one ahead of the Red Devils and two ahead of Belouizdad.

A draw for Al Ahly and a loss for Pirates could ruin the campaign of both sides. Belouizdad would climb to the top of the group with nine points, followed by either Pirates or Al Ahly based on goal difference.

Loss For Al Ahly

Though unlikely, a loss for Al Ahly against D’Abidjan could see the Sea Robbers not only cruise to the last eight, but finish top of the group if they beat Belouizdad with a game to spare.

Should the Red Devils still succumb at home to the group’s whipping boys, and Pirates draw with Belouizdad, it would still leave the leaders on top of the group with a two-point advantage.

Losses for Al Ahly and Pirates would spell bad news for both sides as Belouizdad would leapfrog them to the top spot, leaving the Buccaneers second.

Al Ahly vs Pirates

The fate of both Al Ahly and Pirates could still be decided in the last game of the group stage, when the two teams square off in Cairo.

Al Ahly will have the upper hand, given their home-ground advantage and the fact that they beat Pirates in the same city when they won the 2013 final in the second leg.

But perhaps Pirates would head into that match hoping that they can relive the memories of 2013 after beating the Red Devils in their own backyard in the second round of the group stage.