Can Bafana Bafana reach the AFCON last 16? Key strategies and pitfalls

Bafana Bafana’s AFCON campaign is delicately poised heading into the final round of Group B matches, with qualification for the round of 16 still firmly within reach – but not quite guaranteed.

South Africa’s fate hinges on their final group fixture against Zimbabwe on Monday, December 29, a match that effectively serves as a decider after a tense group phase that has seen Group B emerge as one of the most competitive brackets at the tournament.

This game can be seen as a grudge match, set for the Marrakesh Stadium on Monday evening. 

Overall, these teams have clashed 19 times (including Cosafa Cup games) with eight wins for Bafana, six for the Warriors, and five draws (one of which was a Cosafa Cup knockout game which Zimbabwe went on to win via penalties).

South Africa are unbeaten against their neighbours since 2013 and most recently took four points off Zimbabwe in the qualifiers for the 2026 Fifa World Cup.

Now, with AFCON’s expanded format allowing the top two teams from each group, plus the four best third-placed sides, to progress, the margin for error is wider than in previous editions. Even so, Bafana cannot afford a slip.

The qualification equation

The simplest route is also the safest: avoid defeat against Zimbabwe.

A victory would mathematically guarantee South Africa a place in the knockout stages, regardless of other results in Group B or elsewhere. Three points would either secure a top-two finish or ensure Bafana are comfortably placed among the best third-placed teams.

A draw, while not ideal, would still likely be enough. However, it would leave South Africa vulnerable to permutations in other groups, particularly if goal difference comes into play. CAF has already highlighted Group B as one where fine margins may decide final placings, and a draw would force Bafana to wait on results from Groups A, C, D, E and F.

Defeat, however, would almost certainly spell disaster – especially if South Africa also failed to beat Egypt earlier in the group. A loss to Zimbabwe would leave Bafana short on points and exposed in the race for the four best third-place positions, where teams with stronger goal differences could leapfrog them.

In short, the Zimbabwe match is non-negotiable.

Where it could go wrong

The biggest danger for Bafana is allowing the match to drift into a low-tempo contest where frustration creeps in. Zimbabwe, with nothing to lose, are likely to sit deep, disrupt rhythm and wait for mistakes.

Discipline and defensive concentration will be critical. In a group where goal difference may be decisive, conceding avoidable goals could undo the hard work of the earlier rounds. Likewise, wastefulness in front of goal could come back to haunt South Africa if they are dragged into third-place calculations.

Another pitfall is scoreboard pressure. If news filters through of favourable or unfavourable results elsewhere, Bafana must resist the temptation to chase the game recklessly.

Who Bafana can depend on

In moments like this, experience matters.

South Africa will once again look to their established spine – players who understand tournament football and can manage pressure. Leadership from the back and composure in midfield will be vital to control the tempo, while calm decision-making in the final third could be the difference between progression and elimination.

The squad’s blend of seasoned internationals and energetic younger players gives coach Hugo Broos options, but the responsibility will fall on those who have been here before to steady the ship.

The bottom line

The equation is clear: win and Bafana Bafana are through. Draw, and calculators come out. Lose, and the AFCON journey is likely over.

For South Africa, the task is simple in theory – but, as AFCON history repeatedly shows, nothing is ever straightforward.