AFCON roundup: qualification picture sharpens as final group games loom

AS BAFANA Bafana prepare for a decisive Group B showdown against Zimbabwe on Monday night, the broader Africa Cup of Nations picture is beginning to take shape, with several teams already clarifying their paths toward the round of 16 and others left clinging to permutations.

South Africa’s situation is emblematic of a tournament that has been defined by fine margins. With the expanded format allowing third-placed teams a potential route through, qualification remains open for many – but only if results align on the final matchday.

While Bafana focus on a match they cannot afford to lose, events elsewhere have underlined just how quickly fortunes can swing at AFCON.

Nigeria power through Group C

Nigeria became the second team to officially book a place in the round of 16 after a tense 3-2 victory over Tunisia.

Victor Osimhen’s goal just before half-time set the tone, with Wilfred Ndidi and Ademola Lookman extending the lead after the break. Tunisia’s late rally, sparked by goals from defenders Montassar Talbi and Ali Abdi, ensured a nervous finish but did not prevent Nigeria from sealing a second Group C win.

That result guarantees the Super Eagles top spot in the group, even with one match still to play, and provides a clear example of how decisive wins remove uncertainty late in the group phase.

Senegal held, but remain in control

Senegal were forced to settle for a 1-1 draw with DR Congo, a result that kept both teams in contention.

Cedric Bakambu opened the scoring for Congo in the 61st minute, before Senegal responded through Sadio Mane after pressure created by the introduction of 17-year-old Ibrahim Mbaye. Mane’s equaliser came after Mbaye’s effort was saved, highlighting Senegal’s ability to change tempo from the bench.

The draw did little to settle the group outright, but ensured Senegal avoided defeat heading into the final round.

Historic moment for Benin

Benin recorded their first-ever Africa Cup of Nations victory with a 1-0 Group D win over Botswana in Rabat.

Yohan Roche scored the decisive goal in the 28th minute after combining with captain Steve Mounie, with his effort deflecting into the net. The result marked a milestone moment for Benin, who now carry momentum into their remaining fixture.

Hosts made to wait in Group A

AFCON hosts Morocco were denied early qualification after being held to a 1-1 draw by Mali.

Morocco took the lead deep into first-half added time through a Brahim Diaz penalty, but Mali responded in the second half when Lassine Sinayoko converted from the spot following a VAR review.

Morocco remain top of Group A on four points, with Mali and Zambia both on two, setting up a tense final round of matches.

Zambia stumble, pressure builds

Zambia’s knockout hopes suffered a blow after a goalless draw with Comoros in Casablanca.

After an early Comoros goal was ruled out by VAR, Zambia struggled to break through, despite late chances. With Morocco still to come, Zambia now require favourable results elsewhere as well as a strong final performance to stay alive.

Group B remains wide open

Closer to Bafana Bafana’s immediate concerns, Group B continues to offer no margin for error.

Angola and Zimbabwe picked up their first points of the tournament after a 1-1 draw, with Gelson Dala and Knowledge Musona on the scoresheet. Both teams lost their opening matches and now face must-win final fixtures.

Angola meet group leaders Egypt, while Zimbabwe face South Africa in a clash that will directly influence which teams advance and which are left relying on third-place calculations.

As the final round approaches, AFCON’s familiar themes are firmly in play: pressure, permutations, and the thin line between progress and elimination. For Bafana Bafana, the broader tournament context offers both warning and opportunity.