Benin hold all the cards as Bafana pray for a Super Eagles favour

THE ATTITUDE in Mzansi seems to be that for one night, just Tuesday night, South Africans will fly the Nigerian colours with pride when they take on Benin in a crucial World Cup qualifier. 

Why? Simply because if Nigeria win, then South Africa will qualify for next year’s World Cup in the USA and Mexico.

But hold on a second … that’s not quite true, it’s not as cut and dried as that, as there are a number of permutations and possibilities that need to be considered.

Firstly, let’s be brutally honest: Benin hold all the chips and most of the cards. It’s up to them to lose their ticket and this will only happen if they stumble.

Bafana Bafana’s 0-0 draw with Zimbabwe in Durban on Friday was bitterly disappointing, and it is as a result of that stalemate that Benin are in the driving seat heading into Tuesday’s final round of group games.

Sadly, Bafana’s fate is out of their own hands as they head into the match against Rwanda in Mbombela.

On the plus side, there is a glimmer of hope. They now know they need to win the game as a bare minimum to stay in contention. But after being docked points for fielding an ineligible player against Lesotho, they lost their tight grip on the qualifying ticket, and they need a few things to go their way.

One thing that seems to be in Bafana’s favour is the fact that Nigeria are still in with a chance of qualifying. Yes, you thought it was just between Benin and Bafana, didn’t you? Nope, the Super Eagles can still soar into the World Cup if they hammer Benin.

For those who are scratching their heads at this point, here are the permutations going into Tuesday’s final round.

If, as we all hope, Bafana get the big win they need against Rwanda, they stand a great chance of overhauling Benin. Any other result and they will fall short. Please note, they would not be through yet, but their chances would have improved.

Here’s the thing: if Nigeria beats Benin, then it’s simple, Bafana will qualify if they beat Rwanda. But if they fail to win, Nigeria could sneak through with a 1-0 victory over Benin — both teams would then finish level on 17 points, +4 goal difference, 12 goals scored, and head-to-head (2-2). 

In that case, Nigeria will advance on the away-goals rule after losing 2-1 in the reverse fixture. If Nigeria win 2-1, the team to advance would be decided by Fair Play points — and if those are still tied, by the drawing of lots.

I know, this gives me a headache too.

But it gets worse. If Benin and Nigeria draw, that’s where things get tight. 

A draw would leave both Bafana Bafana and Benin on 18 points, with Benin holding a +5 goal difference and South Africa on +3. That means Bafana have to beat Rwanda by at least two clear goals to draw level on goal difference. 

If that happens, it would come down to goals scored — both sides currently have 12.

By scoring at least twice against Rwanda, Bafana would reach 14. If Benin’s draw is 0-0, 1-1 or 2-2, South Africa go through on head-to-head results, having beaten Benin 2-1 and 2-0 earlier in the campaign.  

However, a 3-3 draw in Uyo – as unlikely as it seems – would favour Benin, who would advance on goals scored.

And now the bad news; the news that will have South African football fans clutching their antacid during tonight’s games … If Benin beat Nigeria, it’s game over for Bafana. Benin will reach their first-ever World Cup, no matter what happens elsewhere.