422 000 pupils never reached matric: pass rate celebrations challenged

CIVIL rights organisation AfriForum has criticised the celebration of South Africa's 2025 matric pass rate, pointing to statistics showing that 422 000 pupils who started Grade 1 in 2014 never made it to Grade 12.

Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube acknowledged the retention challenge, noting that only 65% (778 000) of pupils progressed to matric, with the greatest dropout pressure occurring in Grades 10-12.

Afriforum said they were calling on the Department of Basic Education (DBE) to focus less on the high matric pass rate and to pay more attention to early childhood development, quality education in the foundation phase, the rehabilitation of dysfunctional schools, and strict action against examination irregularities.

During the release of the matric results last week, Gwarube said the story of the Class of 2025 began in 2014. 

“It is a story of resilience, of young people who kept going through difficult seasons.

In 2014, 1.2 million children entered Grade 1. By the time that same cohort reached Grade 10 in 2023, a decrease of around 4% was noted. We therefore have very high retention rates between Grade 1 and Grade 10.“However, between Grades 10 and 12, a large number of pupils begin to repeat, others even leave the school system. The full-time Grade 12 class of 2025 had around 778 000 pupils enrolled.

“This tells us something important. The largest dropout pressure is not across the whole system. It intensifies late, as pupils move into Grades 11 and 12.

“Nationally, only about 84% make it from Grade 10 to Grade 11, and about 78% from Grade 11 to Grade 12. And that is why pupil retention matters. If pupils exit the system before Grade 12, the system is not yet delivering quality at scale, regardless of how strong the final pass rate is.

“Where we see lower pupil retention alongside higher performance, we must question that pattern carefully and fairly – using data, not assumptions,” she added.

Gwarube said pupils needed to be protected, and schools needed to ensure that no one was pressured to improve statistics by closing doors to opportunity.

“If any pupil was being discouraged, diverted or left without support – whether out of Grade 12 entirely or out of gateway subjects – then we must find it, stop it and replace it with earlier support that keeps opportunity open.

“We must continue strengthening pupil tracking and early warnings with Higher Education and Training, so support and intervention happen long before Grade 12.

“Our biggest system-health test is not only the pass rate, but whether pupils stay the course from the early grades through to Grade 12.

“The data also shows a more stable system. The largest share of candidates were 18 years old – a sign of on-time progression. The percentage of pupils who were unable to sit for any of their exam papers has fallen sharply, from around 17% in 2017 to around 2% today.

“Part-time repeat candidate numbers have also declined, reflecting a lower number of candidates seeking to repeat Grade 12, given the improved performance.“Girls now outnumber boys by 56% to 44%, reflecting stronger protections for the girl-child, including the removal of pregnancy as a barrier to education.

“But the boy-child is increasingly being left behind, becoming underrepresented in matric cohorts and less likely than girls to return through second-chance pathways. This imbalance requires urgent and targeted intervention,” Gwarube said.

Afriforum’s head of education projects, Carien Bloem, said a combination of dysfunctional schools, poor governance, lack of accountability, and examination irregularities contributed to many pupils not receiving the quality of education to which they were entitled. 

“When one looks at how many hopeful pupils with great potential start Grade one, but ultimately never reach or pass matric, it becomes clear that the problem did not arise in their matric year.

“It is a systematic failure that developed over years and particularly hits children in dysfunctional schools hard,” she added.

Bloem said warned that the high number of dysfunctional schools, where teaching was often irregular, inadequate, or of poor quality, had a direct impact on pupils' academic performance and long-term prospects. 

“Important skills that pupils need to acquire to form a good foundation, such as reading, writing, solving mathematical problems, and the development of critical thinking, are being neglected, which then negatively affects their later academic success.

 “The situation is exacerbated by various irregularities such as the leaking of exam papers, which undermine the credibility of the matriculation examination system and create a false image of performance. These matters do a great injustice to pupils who are trying to succeed under difficult circumstances,” said Bloem.

“This also has serious consequences for young people’s access to further study, employment, and full participation in the economy.

 “The true measure of success in education should not be based solely on the percentage of matriculants who pass matric, but on the number of pupils who start with Grade 1, see it through to the end and ultimately leave the education system at the end of matric with the knowledge and skills that enable them to carve out a prosperous future for themselves,” Bloem added.

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