'System can only absorb half': Manamela warns as 850,000 matriculants face limited spaces

Higher Education Minister Buti Manamela says South Africa’s post-school education system will only be able to accommodate around half of the 850,000 matriculants expected to sit for their final examinations this year.

Manamela was addressing the media on Monday at the Ronnie Mamoepa Media Centre, Tshedimoso House in Pretoria. 

He gave an update on the state of readiness of universities, Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) colleges, and Community Education and Training (CET) colleges ahead of the 2026 academic year, and the opening of applications for the National Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS).

“The reality is that about 850,000 young people will be sitting for exams. If all of them pass, the system can only absorb half,” said Manamela.

“Between now and the next three months, we will be looking for solutions for the rest. Some will look for jobs, take a gap year or consider other options, but we must plan for those young people. That’s a big question we must answer soon.”

The department has projected around 235,000 first-year spaces at public universities, 170,000 at TVET colleges, and 120,000 at CET (Community Education and Training) colleges - a combined total of 525,000 available spaces for new students in 2026.

Manamela said the system cannot accommodate every qualifying learner.

“That is why we stress that learners must apply on time, explore multiple options, and understand that TVET colleges, CET colleges, and SETAs are equally important pathways into employment, skills training, and further study.”

He added that many leaners and parents wrongly assume that a bachelor’s pass guarantees entry into university.

“It’s not automatic. For example, all universities plan collectively with us. If 100,000 students want to study law, but the plan provides for fewer spaces based on national skills demand, we cannot accommodate everyone.”

The number of young people completing matric has been steadily increasing, creating further pressure on the system.

“Each year, more young people pass with a bachelor’s pass. Last year, about 615,000 passed matric, though fewer with bachelor-level results. Yet, spaces remain limited - in universities, TVETs, and community colleges - as well as in private institutions.”

Earlier this year, universities reported record numbers of applications, far exceeding the spaces available.

-University of Johannesburg (UJ): 693,990 applications (358,992 applicants) for only 10,900 undergraduate places

-University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN): Over 290,600 applications for around 8,600 first-year spots

-Stellenbosch University: 90,027 applications for only 6,005 available places

The most wanted programmes included Bachelor of Education (all phases), Bachelor of Nursing, Bachelor of Arts, Bachelor of Laws (LLB), Bachelor of Social Work, Bachelor of Commerce in Accounting, Diploma in Public Relations and Diploma in Logistics.

Manamela added, “There will be stiff competition, and not every applicant will be accepted.”

“This is why we must balance enrolments across study fields to avoid oversupply in certain areas while shortages persist in others.”

Manamela said the department's aim is not just to increase enrolment numbers, but to ensure students succeed once they enter the system.

“Our goal is not simply mass enrolment - it is access with success,” he said.

He expressed concern about high dropout rates, especially in the first year of study.

“We are now in discussions with institutions to make throughput and success rates as transparent as Grade 12 results, so that the public can track how many students actually complete their studies.”

He said the country’s universities can accommodate around 1.1 million students. 

NSFAS provides bursaries and loans to around 900,000 students, including 130,000 studying at community colleges.

The Sector Education and Training Authorities (SETAs) also provide thousands of learnerships, apprenticeships, and skills programmes each year for the unemployed, the working population, and those not in employment, education or training.

“We want to ensure the post-school system serves not only the academic elite, but also those looking for practical skills, second chances, or other ways into the job market,” Manamela said.

Despite improvements in access to higher education, many structural challenges remain unresolved.

Students continue to face delays in NSFAS allowance disbursements, inadequate student accommodation, poor infrastructure, rising student debt, which often prevents students from receiving their qualifications

Each year, some students camp outside campuses in hopes of securing spaces.

“We have seen progress in terms of access, but uneven success. These challenges must be addressed urgently,” said Manamela.

He encouraged learners to take TVET and community colleges seriously as viable alternatives to university.

“Applications are open and many will close in October,” added.

simon.majadibodu@i.co.za

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