Explore the historical transition from horse-drawn transport to automobiles and draw parallels to the current shift towards electric vehicles, examining challenges and future technologies. Photographer: Armand Hough, Independent Newspapers.
History is written only about the victors. Economic laws will work only for technologies that survive.
Horses have been our partners and co-workers in the grand project of civilisation. The relationship between humans and horses is one of the oldest and most consequential examples of inter-species cooperation in the natural world. Whenever and wherever it first occurred, the domestication of the horse was a watershed moment in human history.
It gave people an unprecedented degree of mobility and power, allowing them to travel farther and faster than ever before, to carry heavy loads over long distances, and to expand the possibilities of agriculture, trade, and warfare. As beasts of burden, horses were unrivalled in their combination of strength, speed, and versatility. Before the invention of the steam engine, they were the primary means of overland transportation, hauling stagecoaches, mail carriages, and freight wagons across far-flung networks of roads. In cities, horses powered streetcars and omnibuses, and even inside homes and workshops, they turned the gears of smaller devices like sewing machines.
1. The tipping point.
In 1908 the number of cars passed the number of horses for the first time and irrevocably. Very quickly, the first cars were introduced about the turn of the century and by 1920 had taken over all but a handful of niches. Most experts believe the horse and buggy days started to fade out around 1910 when the horse and buggy were replaced by the automobile. Once the railway and personal automobile became readily available to the middle class, the horse and buggy fell out of favour as a mode of transport. Cars became popular because their prices had plummeted: a Ford Model T sold for $850 in 1908 but $260 in 1916, with a dramatic rise in reliability along the way.
2. Can we learn from the transition from horse and carriage to the automobile in the early 20th century to move from internal combustion engines (ICE) to Electric powered cars?
The development of the automobile began in the late 19th century, with early pioneers like Karl Benz and Gottlieb Daimler creating the first practical gasoline-powered vehicles. These early automobiles were expensive and unreliable, thus limiting their adoption. This seems all too familiar with present-day issues with the transition to EV cars.
The increasing affordability and availability of automobiles led to the eventual shift away from horse-drawn transportation. Initially, automobiles were primarily used for short trips and leisure activities, being seen as not very practical for long journeys. Another familiar issue almost one hundred years later. A hundred years ago widespread adoption was hindered by the lack of a supporting infrastructure, particularly roads in rural areas. The following area of concern is holding back the adoption of EVs throughout most countries.
1. High purchase costs: a major challenge associated with the use of EVs is the initial cost of the electric cars.
2. Limited charging infrastructure.
3. Range anxiety.
4. Slow charging speeds. While EVs offer impressive ranges, the trade-off often comes in the form of slower charging speeds.
5. Environmental Impact of battery production.
6. Limited model availability. (Especially affordable relative to ICE engine cars).
7. Consumer awareness and misconceptions.
8. Grid capacity and energy sources.
3. Moore’s law.
The observation that the number of transistors on computer chips doubles approximately every two years is known as Moore’s Law. Moore’s Law is not a law of nature, but an observation of a long-term trend in how technology is changing.
The above data gave rise to certain remarkably interesting consequences as can be seen in the graph below. It is interesting to observe that this phenomenon is nowhere to be seen to have been considered in inflation numbers. There should have been a reduction in inflation where this phenomenon takes place. The same goes for ordinary vehicles. There is little value in comparing a 1,500cc Toyota Corolla of 2017 with the same vehicle in 2024. The latter offers a faster and stronger engine and in addition, it uses less fuel. Inflation figures set by Central Banks ignore these influences. On a personal level, I am extremely disappointed to have become aware of the reverse of Moor’s law that may soon be upon us. As oil demand dwindled for ICE vehicles, I initially assumed that the price of our fuel would drop dramatically. However, some experts point out that as less and less fuel is used the unit price of it will start to increase as the economies of scale will disappear.
4. The sky is the limit; some say we have reached it.
Moore's law has been a fundamental driving force in the semiconductor industry, predicting the doubling of transistors on a chip approximately every two years.
The principle has catalysed advancements in computing power, efficiency, and miniaturisation, significantly impacting technology and society.
Emerging challenges at the nanoscale require innovative approaches to sustain the pace of technological progress, with ongoing research in alternative materials and computing paradigms.
In as early as 1936, aeronautical engineer Theodore Wright, pointed out that the cost of airplanes fell as the number of planes manufactured rose. Specifically, he said that the cost was proportional to the inverse of the number of planes manufactured raised to some power. This theory has since been put forward as a more general law that governs the costs of technological products and is often explained on the basis that, the more we make, the better and more efficient we get at making. This principle will most definitely still apply to the production of EVs.
5. Future technologies.
The future of some technologies depends crucially on governmental policies, not just conventional market forces. For example, the evolution of climate-change technologies, in which Nordhaus specialises, will depend on the future pricing policies of carbon emissions. “Some technologies, such as carbon capture and storage, won’t even get off the ground with a zero-carbon price,” he says.
Economist William Nordhaus of Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, warns that almost by definition the laws will work only for technologies that survive, so they can’t predict the trajectory of very young technologies. “History is written only about the victors,” he says.
Humanoid robots
As of 2024, over 10% of South Korea's workforce has been replaced by robots, according to the World Robotics 2024 report. This equates to more than three million robots, given that approximately 28.8 million South Koreans were employed as of September 2024. Most of these robots are industrial machines designed for specific tasks, and not humanoid robots per se. Humanoid robots, which resemble human appearance and behaviour, represent a much smaller fraction of the robotic workforce.
There are already certain commentators stating that human workers are the horses of a century ago and face a similar fate.
6. How does the average South African citizen prepare for such a future? It is well within our grasp. Take the following facts. “The average user utilises about 10% of Excel's full functionality, though this percentage can vary depending on their skill level and specific needs”. Every person with access to excel can improve their skills with free online courses. The average user utilises about 10% of Excel's full functionality, though this percentage can vary depending on their skill level and specific needs.
Breakdown:
Basic Users (Majority):
Intermediate Users:
Advanced Users:
* Kruger is an independent analyst.
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