Inside the ANC’s quiet succession storm: Who’s really positioning for 2027?

Succession talks inside the ANC are intensifying as senior figures, deputy president Paul Mashatile, Thoko Didiza, Fikile Mbalula, Ronald Lamola and Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, are increasingly touted as possible candidates to succeed President Cyril Ramaphosa ahead of the party’s 2027 national conference. 

The ANC insists there is no leadership battle, but the speculation has overshadowed the party’s National General Council (NGC) meeting at the Birchwood Hotel in Ekurhuleni, where officials are reviewing the organisation’s performance.

Mashatile and Mbalula remain the most frequently mentioned contenders.

However, Didiza, the National Assembly Speaker, has emerged as a new potential candidate with reported backing from senior leaders, including Ramaphosa. 

Didiza was previously fielded as the ANC’s mayoral candidate in Tshwane in 2016, but the party lost the city.

Her candidacy collapsed after the party lost control of the city to the DA.

Speculation that the gathering could be used to push for Ramaphosa’s removal has been dismissed repeatedly by party leaders, who caution against fuelling factionalism.

The conversation about succession comes at a sensitive time. 

Ramaphosa’s former preferred successor, Senzo Mchunu, is on special leave as a judicial commission and Parliament investigate allegations of corruption and interference in the police and justice system - accusations he denies.

A judicial commission of inquiry and a parliamentary ad hoc committee are investigating alleged misconduct in the SAPS and the broader justice system. 

Mchunu has stepped aside from ANC duties while the matter is under scrutiny.

Another possible contender is NEC member Ronald Lamola, the Minister of International Relations and Co-operation. 

Energy Minister Ramokgopa is also reportedly exploring a joint bid for either party president or deputy president.

Despite the rising speculation, the ANC says the four-day NEC meeting has not raised any call for Ramaphosa to step down.

Political analyst Professor Susan Booysen told IOL News she does not view any of the touted contenders as “a good package”.

“Leadership and party political leadership is often a strange thing. It will happen irrespective of whether one thinks those leaders have the ability to do it or not,” she said.

“I don't see in any one of these individuals an all-round package of what it takes to be a good leader: the ability to articulate a vision, be inspirational, dynamic, experienced and have a clean record. It is few and far between in this current harvest of potential leaders.”

Booysen said the growing conversation about succession signals discontent with the current leadership.

“The fact that the pool is widening means there are serious doubts about what the available candidates bring to the table.”

The ANC’s current top seven comprises Ramaphosa as president, Mashatile as deputy president, Gwede Mantashe as national chairperson, Mbalula as secretary-general, Nomvula Mokonyane as deputy secretary-general, Maropene Ramokgopa as second deputy secretary-general and Dr Gwen Ramokgopa as treasurer-general.

Speaking to IOL News on Wednesday, the party’s second deputy secretary general Moropene Ramokgopa insisted there is “no” succession battle despite the rumours.

“In 2027 we will be going to a conference, and that is normal,” she said. 

“Every five years the conference is not only about electing leadership - it is about getting a new mandate.”

She also said discussions at the NEC included strengthening the Government of National Unity (GNU), formed after the ANC’s poor showing in the May 2024 elections. 

The GNU includes former rivals such as the DA and Freedom Front Plus.

“Coalitions are not bad, but the ANC obviously would like to win elections so that it can direct the national democratic revolution properly,” she said. 

“Our plan is to serve our people and gain their confidence.”

Asked whether she would consider contesting a top position, she said, “For this NGC, we are not electing anyone. Let’s talk about it in 2027. I will definitely tell you if I am.”

On Tuesday, Mantashe said succession talk is premature.

“People will put their names in their heads. They want to be elected. But that is premature,” he said. 

“I’m not going to be available. I’m more than 70 years old. I’m retiring.”

Another ANC NEC member Thandi Moraka echoed his comments, saying the party must focus on the upcoming local government elections.

“We cannot be preoccupied with leadership debates. Let’s win the elections first,” she said.

The ANC’s next national conference, where new leadership will be elected, is scheduled for 2027.

Electricity Minister Ramokgopa declined to comment on whether he would enter the race.

“Let’s focus on electricity,” he said. “There is discipline in the ANC. Those conversations will come later. Our focus is on fixing the economy and improving people’s lives.”

Normally, when a president steps down, the deputy president would take over. 

However, within the ANC, the 2027 elective conference will determine a new leadership team instead.

Didiza has responded to reports that she was eyeing the party’s top position.

“Well, I have seen the interest, particularly from the members of the media, which is very intriguing if I were to say the least because all of us know the processes of the ANC and how the elective conference is prepared for.”

“I just think we need to be patient… and wait for the process.”

Asked if it was time for the party to have the first female party leader, Didiza did not answer the question.

“You know for me at times, I think we divert what is the core business of what we are here for, and I think now the issues of whether we win the 2027 local government elections and how do we prepare ourselves to win the 2029 general elections - should be the best for us.”

Didiza added, “I think what should be upper most for us is what these public representatives are doing to change our lives for the better.”

simon.majadibodu@iol.co.za

kamogelo.moichela@iol.co.za

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