Foundation before finish line: Why education experts oppose the 50% NSC pass mark

The highly contentious proposal by Bosa leader Mmusi Maimane to increase the National Senior Certificate (NSC) minimum pass mark from 30% to 50% has ignited a fierce debate in South African education circles.

Parliament this week rejected a motion by Maimane to reassess the 30% minimum pass requirement for certain Grade 12 subjects. The motion was defeated by a vote of 119 MPs against and 87 in favour.

Experts and the Basic Education Minister have reached a consensus, however, that foundational, systemic reforms are urgently needed long before any tinkering with the final pass metric.

Maimane, championing the move as a necessary step to raise educational standards and better prepare students for higher education and the modern workforce, has met strong opposition from the ANC and DA.

These parties caution that simply elevating the pass mark without addressing underlying crises could unfairly penalise students and sharply increase failure rates.

Basic Education minister Siviwe Gwarube emphasised that the focus should be on early intervention.

“Somebody said to me on Twitter this afternoon, why would you want a surgeon operating on you who got 30%? It's a myth. And we need to stop making this a populist discussion,” she said, dismissing the oversimplification of the current criteria.

Education experts stress that the current NSC qualification is not simply attained by achieving 30% in all subjects; it involves a complex, multi-level set of criteria designed for different post-school pathways.

Dr. Anthea Cereseto, CEO of the Governing Body Foundation, explained that the notion of a blanket 30% pass mark is a “fiction” in practice.

The requirements are structured to accommodate a Bachelor's pass, a Diploma pass, and an ordinary NSC certificate.

“University entrance requires four main subjects at 50% and the requirements are, in fact, higher than in days past,” Cereseto noted.

She elaborated that a successful NSC pass requires a mix of 40% and 30% marks across different subjects, with higher minimums for home languages and other key subjects.

Professor of Education Policy at Wits School of Education, Brahm Fleisch, detailed the current structure.

“At present we have requirements for home language and first traditional language at 40% then a number of subjects also 40%. Then additional subjects are 30%.”

He warned that simply shifting the standard to 50% risks “oversimplifying qualification standards” and “is not going to address the underlying educational challenge that we currently face.”

The primary concern of those opposing Maimane's proposal is the inevitable spike in failure rates, especially given the current state of foundational learning.

Minister Gwarube highlighted the stark reality of the literacy crisis.

“We know that 8 out of 10 children in South Africa can't read for meaning. That's a literacy crisis. Those children are not going to go on to take mathematics and science and other gateway subjects if we don't get the basics right,” she said.

Fleisch concurred, stating that the underlying problem is “obviously a problem associated with literacy and numeracy in the early grades”.

He cautioned that increasing the minimum pass mark now would inevitably lead to a lower pass rate, given that the “underlying educational standards are relatively low”.

While he supports a conversation about raising the standard, he insists it must be led by experts and accompanied by a real shift in the curriculum and improved basic education.

The opposition to Maimane's proposal by established political parties like the ANC and DA reflects a priority on equity and systemic stability over a fast-track to perceived quality improvement.

They argue that a sudden, sharp increase to 50% would unfairly penalise learners from disadvantaged backgrounds, exacerbating inequality.

South African Democratic Teachers' Union (SADTU) general secretary Mugwena Maluleke advocated for improving other pathways, noting that the NSC is a general certificate.

“We need to develop our technical, vocational and occupational school-leaving qualifications so that they have higher prestige than they currently do,” he said, suggesting that a focus on vocational education is a crucial part of the equity solution.

The consensus from education bodies is that the solution lies at the beginning of the schooling career, not the end.

Adel Jacobs, Head of Department SAOU Professional Services, stressed the need for “Early Intervention and Development,” arguing that strengthening formative years (0–9 years) is “critical” to eliminate academic delays and reduce “unreasonable and desperate pressure on Grade 12 candidates to fill gaps at the last minute.”

Cereseto said improved learning outcomes start with providing the best opportunities at the earliest ages and grades.

She argued that societal improvements are needed from birth—maternal health, child nutrition, access to early learning materials, and professional Early Childhood Development centres.

“You don't fix systemic issues by suddenly changing the pass mark for the final years of school. Begin at the bottom - age 0,” she concluded.

On the question of international standards, Professor Fleisch advised caution.

“The international experience, whether it's a 40, 50, 60 or even 70 percent, doesn't really hold much sway in the South African context. Build your assessment standards historically and related to the curriculum itself,” he stated.

While experts agree a higher pass mark, paired with robust early-grade reforms and a gradual implementation, could improve long-term outcomes, the immediate concern is the systemic decay at the foundational level.

The Minister confirmed an independent panel of experts is currently reviewing assessment criteria from Grade R to Grade 12, indicating a structured approach to potential change.

karen.singh@inl.co.za