Trade experts map SA's future as US relations cool

South Africa must now work hard to diversify its trade with other nations, move beyond reactive diplomacy by setting the agenda in global trade, security, and finance negotiations, and be honest with its finances.

This was voiced by economic, international relations, and safety and security experts after US President Donald Trump cancelled the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) with South Africa, a decision confirmed by the Presidency recently.

The JETP is a coalition of 10 donor nations working to assist developing countries in transitioning from coal to cleaner energy sources. It was introduced during the United Nations (UN) climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland, in 2021. South Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Senegal were named the first recipients of loans, financial guarantees, and grants to support their shift away from coal.

The withdrawal of the US from the JETP reduces the overall international JET pledges to South Africa from $13.8 billion to $12.8 billion.

Not long ago, the US froze the Pepfar funding to South Africa, a move that has crippled some of the non-profit organisations’ ability to provide care to HIV/Aids patients.

The Pepfar halt has left a 17% gap in the country’s healthcare system in HIV/ Aids treatment. South Africa has various other partnerships with the US, raising concerns that these might also be cancelled in future. 

Among these is the Africa’s Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), passed as part of the Trade and Development Act of 2000 in the US. It provides duty-free access to the US market for almost all products exported from more than 40 eligible sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, including South Africa. 

For safety and security, South Africa has signed the Combined DNA Index System (CODIS) with the US to strengthen capacity at local forensic laboratories in the fight against crime. 

Experts say South Africa should look into diversifying its trade from the United States to other countries and economies that are ready to take “our” products and services on terms that are close to those we have with the United States.

Professor Siphamandla Zondi, a politics and international relations expert from the University of Johannesburg, said it looks like the United States is changing its relationship with South Africa in a fast-paced way.

“It is clear that the United States has decided that it should alter its relationship with South Africa by changing the terms of its development, economic and trade relations. This is happening at the back of changing the relationship between the United States, its friends, and its force at the same time, therefore, South Africa is not experiencing a unique experience in this very fast process of changing relationships that it has experienced.

“We need relations with China, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, and others to be intensified at this point. We also more importantly need to find ways to strengthen our economic relations with the rest of the African continent and ensure that we have strong bilateral economic relations with each one of them, so that we may go some way towards closing the gap left by the end of economic relations with the United States,” he said.

Zondi warned that South Africa does not seem to have understood that the Trump administration is going to change things significantly with countries that disagree with it on certain issues. Concerning Europe, there is a disagreement over Ukraine, while with regards to SA, there are disagreements over Gaza and transformation. 

“South Africa operates like it is a bit surprised by these developments and it is responding to the United States as if it had (former president Joe) Biden or (former president Barack) Obama administration, who were open to engagement and disagreement in a civil way, by seeking to appeal to some superior logic within the United States,” he said.

He said South Africa does not understand that trying to persuade the United States publicly on this does not work, rather you need at the highest level to have an engagement with the United States to seek to define this relationship even to define the terms of smooth transition in this relationship so that you minimise the impact on South African economy, society and standing in the world.

Zondi added that South Africa needs to engage its citizens, its business sector, and the whole of society to find responses and ideas in light of what the United States is doing right now.

He added that South Africa also needs to manage the actions of its civil society organisations that claim to be fighting in the interest of the Afrikaner minority in the country because this is adding fuel to the fire in the relationship between South Africa and the United States. 

Economist Professor Bonke Dumisa said the consistent noises about the likelihood of the US removing South Africa from the AGOA are meant to undermine the country’s economy.

“My well-considered position is that the US will not remove South Africa from AGOA, unless they consciously embark on what English language speakers call ‘cutting your nose to spite your face’. AGOA legislation was deliberately well-crafted to be a win-win tool; the AGOA is not just a charity vehicle devised by the USA to do some African states a favour; far from it.

“Do you know that over 120 000 USA jobs are directly linked to AGOA? If the USA emotionally removes South Africa from AGOA, many of those 120 000 USA jobs will be at stake,” Dumisa said.

He said African countries must learn to stand on their own because if a country is dependent on other countries to do it favours, then that country will never be free.

“Let us stop being dependent on other countries for our existence. Let us do things on our own. However, if we do things on our own, we have to learn that money does not grow on trees. This is because people are just imagining that everything must be done for them. They feel entitled to this and that, but they never say how they will contribute towards growing the country’s economy.

“The government is not in the business of growing the economy. The government is in the business of creating a conducive economic environment for private businesses to grow and create jobs. And that is what’s happening in the USA; why is it not happening in South Africa?” Dumisa said.

With the latest stats showing that the economy has grown by only 0.6%, he said the people of SA, not just the government, must consider what is affordable and be honest about the financial situation. If ever something is unaffordable, “we must just drop it. 

He added that whenever the population rate is higher than the economic growth rate, one must forget about jobs being created in that country, and that is the situation SA finds itself in.

Dr Jakkie Cilliers, the founder of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), chair of the ISS Board of Trustees and head of the African Futures and Innovation (AFI) programme said Africa must stop playing by old rules and start shaping new ones because the continent’s ability to shape its future depends on strategic choices, not circumstances.

“Africa must move beyond reactive diplomacy by setting the agenda in global trade, security and finance negotiations. This means pushing for meaningful reforms in global governance institutions such as the United Nations Security Council, enforcing transparency in foreign investment deals, and leveraging collective action through regional institutions,” Cilliers said.

He said there is a need to strengthen internal systems to build external leverage because governance gaps weaken Africa’s ability to negotiate from a position of strength. Regional coordination, binding accountability mechanisms, and streamlined institutions are essential for Africa to act as a unified force rather than a collection of competing states.

“The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) must go beyond trade to drive industrialisation, technology adoption and economic self-sufficiency, ensuring that Africa is not just a supplier of raw materials but a key decision-maker and trendsetter in global markets.

“Africa cannot afford to separate short-term development needs from long-term geopolitical positioning. Achieving this balance is challenging, as competing priorities often strain resource allocation. To navigate this complexity effectively, governance leaders must reframe their approaches and paradigms to integrate economic growth, social development and environmental sustainability. This holistic approach will not only strengthen Africa’s resilience but also enhance its competitiveness on the global stage.

gcwalisile.khanyile@inl.co.za