Zohra Teke: The GNU is a Two-Man Coalition

Have you noticed how slick the DA has been in the GNU? Blink and you'll miss it. They've managed to create a two man GNU without anyone noticing - unless of course you're a political sleuth. Let me explain.

Each time the ANC throws its toys out of the cot over something the DA has said or done - mostly involving Helen Zille, the outcome is now predictable. The ANC dares the DA to withdraw from the GNU, the DA's John Steenhuissen runs off to a bosberaad with Cyril Ramaphosa and everyone is friends and back in the play pen again. Have you heard a squeak from other GNU leaders? Not counting the PA's Gayton Mckenzie. His squeaks are happy giggles and squeals of laughter. He's just excited his 2.06% party is part of the GNU with him occupying a Ministerial position. Happy days.

But the DA has been clever at its game. A psychological warfare. Letting the ANC believe it's survival in government is at its mercy. More specifically, Ramaphosa's survival. Those conversations between the two leaders must reflect those fears and codependency reminders.

But with local government elections around the corner, there may be a shift in gear. I'm just not sure the ANC sees it. The battle for the two parties is very different. For the ANC, its a battle of longevity and survival. It's still reeling from its devastating loss at the general elections. It's still engulfed in the blame game. It's still haunted by the UMkhonto we Sizwe party (MK) which slaughtered it at the polls. It's still licking it's fresh wounds, despite its public roads.

For the DA, it's the perfect timing. It's a vulture circling. It's spreading its wings. Politically, showcasing its performance and outshining the ANC in local governance. And too frail and fractured, the ANC's defence is to dare the DA to leave the GNU instead.

And, while the ANC secretary general, Fikile Mbalula has dismissed any suggestion of a succession battle for the presidency, insiders confirm swords have been drawn.

"The succession battle has started if you look at how the ANC is fixated on its internal squabbles. Mbalula has been trying to keep people within the party out of fear that we will lose more to the MK party. That's why we don't want to disband the Gauteng or KZN Provincial Exexutive Committees yet. That will leave an en mass exodus to MK," said one senior ANC insider.

And just who exactly is eyeing the presidency is being kept under public wraps for now. But, the political game of chess has begun and those with political insight can see it. A case of hulle weet nie wat ons weet nie (they don't know what we know).

Deputy president Paul Mashatile is rumoured to be jostling for the presidency crown with support from Gauteng premier, Panyaza Lesufi. "Oh yes, they are together. Lesufi is supporting Mashatile's camp most likely because he expects to be made deputy president in return for his support. Its all part of a pact," said another senior Gauteng ANC leader.

If that's true, it explains the open defiance of Lesufi in not towing the party line. His decision to exclude the DA in his Provincial government, defying the national directive. His open criticism of the GNU and embarrassment to Mbalula after he was left unscathed over his anti GNU remarks has left Mbalula seething.

But it's no coincidence. Lesufi's rhetoric is popular. It strikes a cord amongst ANC supporters - the vast majority who did not want the party in bed with the DA. Trade unions and the SA Communist Party alike. So not dancing to the GNU tune is a strategic move towards 2027, the next elective conference to replace Ramaphosa as party leader, a precursor to the next general elections.

Interestingly, whilst the ANC is embroiled in its infighting, the DA is embarrassing ANC ministers at every turn - effectively weakening the ANC'S position in the run up to the local elections next year.

That strategy is a carefully planned move. Just after the GNU was formed, the DA appeared somewhat muted, cautious at best, in criticising the ANC. Their marriage of convenience was new and in its honeymoon phase. Now, with local government elections ahead, it's starting to strategically hint - not criticise the ANC's failures. A shift in gears.

The DA has been issuing parliamentary questions, undertaking more oversight visits and questioning the lack of service delivery in metros. One particular DA leader who often spoke to me at length before the elections, detailing the catastrophe of service disasters from the ANC went dead silent following the formation of the GNU. Despite my best charm and cajoling he refused to budge on any insider information. But that's starting to change. I'm suddenly receiving messages on the ANC's lack of service delivery, concerns around lack of accountability and no responses from ANC officials in charge. A coincidence? Change of heart? Did he suddenly wake from a coma? I think not. It's a careful strategy.

Its showcasing the weakness of the ANC at local government level whilst spreading its peacock feathers with its own successes. See what they're doing there? It's a 'look how well we're performing move'.

"I hate how the DA party runs. Effectively an old white boys club. But I stay because it's the only party that delivers. Where the DA governs it delivers and their track record speaks for itself," says one DA insider - and it's that strategy that works for them, and the party uses this effectively.

And, looking at how it's performed since stepping into the GNU, that sentiment is hard to ignore. The DA has worked with lightening speed to implement changes in their portfolios which took the ANC by surprise. So much so, the party ambled meekly behind, trying to play catch up but its lack of effective communications and focus on internal battles has left it trailing behind the performance barometer.

With the 2025 local government elections around the corner, the ANC needs to ramp up its service delivery, display a unifying image and work on consolidating its internal divisions. If it fails, the local elections will be another political bloodbath for the party.

For now, the DA is enjoying its GNU party eating its cupcake. Pun intended.

* Zohra Teke is an independent contributor. 

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.