Shedding the past: Eskom's bright outlook for winter 2025

ESKOM, South Africa’s state-owned power utility, has unveiled an optimistic power system update, projecting a significantly improved outlook for Winter 2025. For the first time in years, the utility anticipates no load shedding if unplanned outages are maintained below 13GW, solidifying a commitment to stabilising the nation’s electricity supply.

The outlook reveals a sharp contrast to previous winters, as the likelihood of load shedding escalates only to a maximum of Stage 2 under the condition that unplanned outages rise to 15GW.

Last year, Eskom faced ominous predictions of Stage 5 load shedding. However, data shows a marked improvement with unplanned outages dropping by 3.1GW compared to 2024 figures, resulting in a forecast range of 13GW to 15GW, down from the previous year’s range of 14GW to 17GW.

Operational advancements

According to Eskom's Group Chief Executive, Dan Marokane, the utility's operational performance has seen substantial enhancements, delivering energy 96% of the time in the last financial year compared to just 9.9% the year before. Additionally, diesel use was slashed by around 50%, translating to cost savings of approximately R16 billion, signifying a reduced reliance on emergency generation methods.

“This year’s Winter Outlook prediction illustrates our operational improvement and efficiency,” Marokane noted, highlighting the operational benchmarks that underpin this year's forecast.

Despite facing recently implemented load shedding in the first four months of 2025, Eskom is in the process of implementing a strategic plan aimed at bolstering operational discipline to recover from such challenges.

Projections and performance indicators

• Unplanned outages saw a significant decrease, offering a substantial boost to generation capacity, with averages dipping below earlier projections.
• Planned maintenance activity has increased to 12.8%, marking an upward trend in organisational commitment to upkeep and efficiency.
• Plant availability improved from 54.6% to 61% year-on-year, indicating a healthier return to service for Eskom’s generation fleet.
• Sales volumes rebounded, growing by 3.6% year-on-year, a sign of improved generation capabilities and stronger export activity.

The successful reconnection of Kusile Units 2 and 3 is also a noteworthy achievement, now operational with the flue gas desulphurisation system in place, while Unit 1 is expected to return to service next month. Furthermore, the Koeberg Unit 2 has reintegrated over 900MW back to service as part of its long-term operational project.

A brighter energy future

Beyond immediate recovery, Eskom is actively engaging in long-term strategies to modernise its power systems and prepare for the South African energy transition. With ambitious plans to deploy 5.90GW of clean energy projects by 2030, the utility is legally separating its Distribution and Generation arms to enhance service offerings and attract strategic partnerships for sustainable investment.

Eskom's management underscores the importance of governance and ethical culture in achieving performance excellence. This ethos plays a crucial role in navigating the evolving energy landscape while ensuring security and reliability for consumers.

The utility expressed gratitude towards the South African government and all key stakeholders, acknowledging their contributions to the notable improvements in the power system. Moreover, commendations were extended to Eskom’s employees for their diligence in executing the Generation Recovery Plan and their commitment to revitalising the organisation.