August fuel price outlook: Petrol price decrease likely, but significant diesel hike on the cards

The August fuel price outlook is a mixed bag, with good news in store for petrol and bad news for those with diesel-powered vehicles.

Unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) is currently pointing to petrol price decreases of 24 cents for 95 Unleaded and 28 cents for 93 Unleaded. Diesel, however, looks set to go up by between 65 cents (50ppm) and 66 cents (500ppm).

These numbers can be a moving target and if the current daily price trends persist until month end, the petrol increase could exceed 30 cents, while the diesel increase could swell to over 70 cents.

In that case, you can expect to pay around R20.78 for a litre of 95 Unleaded at the coast and R21.57 in Gauteng, where 93 Unleaded will cost around R21.49.

Although it could seem strange that diesel is going up while petrol is coming down, these prices are determined by international demand patterns, which usually see diesel prices spiking in the northern hemisphere’s summer and winter periods. The summer months can see higher diesel prices due to increased travel and economic activity.

The predicted price adjustments for August are mainly a result of international fuel price movements, while a stronger rand is adding about five cents worth of relief to the equation.

International Brent crude oil prices have remained relatively stable throughout July, moving in the range between $67 and $70 per barrel, after averaging $69 in the previous review period.

July saw the first fuel price increase in five months, with petrol rising by between 52 cents and 55 cents, and diesel going up by 82 cents to 84 cents.

Petrol is only marginally more expensive than it was in January 2025, when 95 ULP cost R20.80 at the coast. The predicted decrease for August will bring prices back into line with where they were at the beginning of this year.

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IOL Motoring