Eskom warns it could implement higher levels of power cuts

ESKOM has warned that it could implement elevated levels of power cuts higher than stage 6 load shedding in a bid to safeguard the national grid if it experiences further multiple unplanned breakdowns.

This comes as the perpetually struggling power utility burnt through six million litres of diesel in one day on Wednesday when it ramped up load shedding to stage 6 indefinitely.

Stage 6 load shedding means that Eskom has to shed 6,000MW to protect the integrity of the national grid and to avoid a national blackout, curtailing at least six hours of electricity supply during crucial business hours.

Eleven generators, amounting to 5,084MW of capacity, suffered breakdowns since Tuesday morning, leaving Eskom with 5,739MW on planned maintenance while breakdowns accounted for 18,041MW of lost capacity.

In email correspondence with Business Report yesterday, Eskom reiterated that the country would experience prolonged load shedding over the next few months as major capital projects and repairs reduce the available generation capacity.

The utility said that as a result,when there is insufficient generation capacity to maintain the supply and demand balance, the system operator would reduce the customer demand to match the available capacity.

“The load shedding stage implemented is dictated by the available capacity as well as the customer demand for electricity,” it said.

“Should the available generation capacity deteriorate further, higher stages of load shedding could be necessary to safeguard the national power system.”

Presidency spokesperson Vincent Magwenya said President Cyril Ramaphosa deeply regretted the current energy crisis and that he remained seized with finding a sustainable solution.

“President Ramaphosa acknowledges the frustration of households, parents and learners who have commenced the school calendar having faced power shortages,” he said.

The near collapse of the national grid due to unplanned breakdowns amidst the six-month outage of the 900MW Unit 1 at Koeberg Nuclear power station means that Eskom has to burn more diesel to keep the lights on.

As a result, Business Report enquired how much diesel has Eskom been burning per day to meet the electricity demand on the back of nearly half of installed capacity not being available.

“The diesel consumption varies per day depending on the need. Yesterday, (on Wednesday) Eskom burnt more than six million litres,” the power utility said.

Last month, Eskom asked the National Treasury for R19.5 billion to buy diesel to fuel its open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) after ploughing through R14.7bn, which was more than double the allocated amount of R7bn for the fiscal year.

However, Eskom was bailed out by an emergency lifeline supply of 50 million litres of diesel from PetroSA, which is expected to be used in crisis situations only until the end of March when the new financial year kicks in.

The number of days of load shedding per year has grown exponentially, from six days in 2018 to 22 days in 2019, 35 days in 202, 48 days in 2021, and 157 days in 2022. In 2023, load shedding is expected to be implemented for at least 200 days for the first time in history.

As the government prepares to rebuild investor confidence and mobilise investment at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos next week, these crippling power cuts will be an albatross around the necks of the SA delegation.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, during a pre-WEF breakfast meeting yesterday, said he would make an announcement in his Budget Speech next month regarding interventions to save Eskom.

“In my humble view they should be prioritising what they do have … in making sure that (of) the 48,000MW (of Eskom capacity), at least 32,000MW are working. That is why it is critical for us to clear that balance sheet and we will make an appropriate announcement on February 22,” Godongwana said.

Eskom’s power cuts have had a devastating impact on the output of energy-intensive industries. Momentum Investment economist Sanisha Packirisamy said output remained further at risk from persistent disruptions at malfunctioning state-owned enterprises, especially Eskom and Transnet.

“Electricity outages have ramped up in intensity, with a third of offline generating capacity arising from unplanned outages,” she said.

“Although embedded generation projects are gaining traction and should underpin growth this year, the recovery in fixed investment is unlikely to be broad-based due to ongoing challenges suppressing business sentiment.”

The Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of Southern Africa (Seifsa) will release the State of the Metals and Engineering Sector Report 2023 next month.

Seifsa CEO Lucio Trentini said the report will provide a full picture of what lies ahead for the sector, with inflation continuing to put pressure on the global economy and load shedding remaining the biggest local headwind.

“The persistent load shedding, the worst in more than 10 years, has almost erased all the sector’s post-Covid-19 gains and the energy crisis shows no signs of ending,” Trentini said.

“The year is already shaping up to be another busy and challenging one.”