Three big reasons why South Africa’s bakkie and light commercial vehicle market fell by 12% in 2024

After narrowly missing the milestone of returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, South Africa’s new vehicle market declined by 3% in 2024 and this was largely led by a decline in light commercial vehicle sales.

A quick recap: Naamsa reported recently that 515,712 new vehicles were sold in 2024. Passenger cars, at 351,302, were up by 1.1%, while light commercial vehicle sales, at 133,254, fell by 12%.

But did sales of traditional one-tonne bakkies really take such a big knock in 2024?

It’s a mixed picture. While the three biggest players, the Toyota Hilux, Ford Ranger and Isuzu D-Max, were once again among the five top selling vehicles overall, Hilux sales (at 32,656 units) fell by 12.6%, but the Ranger (25,533) and D-Max (19,153) climbed by 3.6% and 1% respectively, and the Mahindra Pik-Up and Nissan Navara also saw modest gains.

However, if we delve deeper into the numbers, it becomes evident that there were two other big culprits in the 2024 LCV sales decline: minibus taxis and Nissan NP200.

Brandon Cohen, Chairperson of the National Automobile Dealer’s Association (NADA), explained that the pullback of SA Taxi Finance, which prompted other financial institutions to follow suit, led to a sharp decline in taxi sales, which fell from their usual monthly average of well over 1,000 units per month to just a few hundred since March.

The Toyota Hi-Ace, which dominates the minibus market by an overwhelming margin, saw its sales volume drop by 55.9%, from 16,465 units in 2023 to just 7,265 in 2024.

The demise of the locally-manufactured Nissan NP200, which was discontinued in April, also contributed to the LCV deficit, with its year-on-year sales halving from 12,721 to 6,544 as the final units hit dealers during the course of the year.

Its departure has killed off the half-tonne bakkie segment, leaving a gaping hole in the market that may not be filled for years. This absence of product will continue to weigh down on the LCV market.

On the one-tonne front, prospects could improve from 2026, with Toyota due to launch its all-new Hilux - although exact timing has yet to be confirmed. Next year will also see the introduction of a one-tonner from Chinese auto giant Chery, as previewed by the recent KP11 concept.

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