MISTRA setting the scene: The implications of changes in the US administration for SA and Africa

Dr Sandy Africa

President Donald Trump’s election and the Republican Party’s success in the polls in November 2024 were the results of a democratic process. However, these elections were highly contested and have led to policy changes with implications for South Africa and the African continent. They also have serious consequences for traditional Western allies of the US.

It’s been pointed out that Trump’s actions were the basis of his election campaign, so they shouldn’t surprise us. Since his swearing in, we have seen the following actions by the Trump administration:

• mass expulsions of undocumented migrants from the US;

• withdrawal of foreign aid to countries around the world; • threats to acquire Greenland and make Canada the 51st state of the US;

• pressure on European allies to take greater responsibility for their defence and security;

• demands that Ukraine pay for the support it receives during the war with Russia; and

• stiff US tariffs on imports from friends and foes alike.

Many have asked: Should they be seen as an aberration in American politics after which the proverbial pendulum will swing back to normal, with the US reverting to using its military might and soft power to take up the mantle of “Leader of the Free World” once again? Or is the US administration growing disenchanted with globalisation and global supply chains and increasingly keen to build walls, to go it alone or at least, on its own terms, at the same time, taking on less responsibility for the world’s troubles? In other words, is there a “Grand Strategy”?

What are we to make of developments in domestic politics in the US, where shutting down of government departments in the name of efficiency, the release of people convicted for their involvement in the January 6, 2022, insurrection; the firing of senior government officials, including in the security establishment, the repudiation of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives, the reversals of gender rights? Are these an aberration, too, after which we are likely to see liberal norms and values becoming prominent again?

Or are they indicative of long-term political, economic and ideological trends, with the performative political style of Donald Trump just bringing them to our tv and phone screens in a manner that is unprecedented in its force and impact?

We thought it would be useful:

• To analyse what is happening to American institutions and whether the checks and balance we thought to be the bedrock of the political system are functioning; and what that means for US society;
• To understand the apparent role of Big Tech in US politics and the way in which the traditional institutions of governance are being challenged by informal sources of power;
• To assess the geopolitical implications of the change in administration and what they mean for international security;
• To reflect on the changes in policy and their implication for SA and African countries at several levels: international security; foreign policy; trade; and people-to-people relations.

We would be short-sighted not to bring into our analysis, an appreciation that the Trump administration, comes to the fore at a time when there has been a considerable shift in the international balance of power, with ongoing realignments.

MISTRA has been researching and reflecting on Africa’s place in the world for as long as it has been in existence. Its latest edited collection on this theme, published in 2022, is titled, “Reflections on Africa’s place in the world”, and it follows other edited collections assessing Africa’s challenges and opportunities in shifting geopolitical conditions.

And last year, MISTRA hosted a successful conference where the core question asked was whether the world is witnessing a power transition (where the hegemony of a once powerful state is being challenged by a new contender) or whether we are gravitating towards a Multipolar Global order, where the traditional institutions that came into being after World War 2, are increasingly being challenged, or supplemented by new forms of pooled sovereignty – regional organisations, new financing instruments, new alliances built on economic cooperation, and the emergence of rising powers, such as the BRICS.

African countries, some being heavily dependent on foreign aid, have felt the consequences of the suspension of grants from the US. But beyond this, it may be that the US has not pronounced its foreign policy intentions on Africa, reflecting that it doesn’t feature too high up in the US’s priorities. This may mean that African countries, individually and collectively may well have some time to observe, take stock of the unfolding situation, and plot various scenarios – identifying potential sources of complementarity but also friction, and working out how best to navigate them.

It is in this context that this webinar is taking place. We look forward to the insights that will be shared by the speakers and to your contributions to the conversation thereafter.

Dr Sandy Africa: Director Research, MISTRA

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