Dear Mr President, renewables won’t lift the poor out of poverty, only mega power stations

In energy and electricity system planning one doesn’t hear any reference to the phrase “build power plants at a scale and pace that we can afford'', in contrast to the use of such a phrase often coined by people with no energy planning knowledge and fundamentals.

This has often been the mantra or defence mechanism used by leaders at Eskom and in the government when nuclear or coal plants investment is mentioned. This is highly problematic and I will explain why it is a red flag issue.

Under investment in economic capital assets such as building power plants and energy generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure can never be a question of “building at a scale and pace that a country can afford”.

Countries that prioritise investments in economic infrastructure and socio-economic capital investment are today reaping economic boom return rewards.

So if you ever hear this “affordability” mantra, be worried. One is almost guaranteed that the country will end up underdeveloped and facing economic stagnation for several decades.

Last week, President Cyril Ramaphosa in his Opening of Parliament Address made no mention of building new base load mega power stations.

He said: “Over the next five years, we will seize the enormous opportunity in renewable energy for inclusive growth. South Africa has some of the best solar and wind resources in the world. As we undertake a just transition towards renewable energy, South Africa must create a green manufacturing sector centred on the export of green hydrogen and associated products, electric vehicles and renewable energy components…

“We already have a huge pipeline of renewable energy projects, representing over 22 500MW of new generating capacity, estimated to be worth around R400 billion in new private investment. Investments such as these will create many jobs…

“As these investments reach fruition more jobs will be created. Our Just Energy Transition Investment Plan sets out a clear path to invest more than R1.5 trillion in a just transition, including support for workers and communities in Mpumalanga and other coal-producing regions. South Africa is undergoing a renewable energy revolution that is expected to be the most significant driver of growth and job creation in the next decade and beyond. We also have a unique opportunity to position our country as a major player in the digital economy and create jobs in digital services,” Ramaphosa said.

So where is this electricity to grow the economy going to come from, when Eskom is not building any brand-new modular and mega power stations?

The digital economy requires huge amounts of electricity. You cannot grow an economy without investing in the backbone of the economy, which is energy generation capacity.

While South Africa needs to build as many renewable energy projects as possible, the reality is that it won’t produce enough megawatts needed to produce the massive amount of electricity required to power the economy and the future of the nation, with its exponential population growth.

Planning for growth while burying our heads in the sand is not going to help us.

Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, in his Opening of Parliament response speech, said: “We were able to push back state capture at Eskom and that is why the lights are on.”

I want to also highlight the importance of Dr John Hlophe’s response speech to Ramaphosa in Parliament.

He labelled the establishment of the Government of National Unity as singularly “a very cruel joke by the Ramaphosa faction of the ANC and the DA perpetrated against the oppressed and downtrodden masses of our people. Our people are painfully aware that it will be impossible to create a united nation in South Africa unless the legacy of colonialism and apartheid was addressed.”

The speech painted a grim picture of how South Africa continues to impose on its poorest citizens a particular colonial spatial underdevelopment due to lack of proper investment in economic and energy infrastructure.

The current economic planning trajectory never prioritises the inclusion of the poor and marginalised society and focuses on improving their lives through radical economic transformation. Building robust base load energy infrastructure is the quickest way to radically transform an economy.

How so, you would ask? Over the last 14 years the previous administration since 2010 invested in building three key power stations: the Ingula hydro power plant, and the Medupi and Kusile power stations.

Today, the energy generation capacity and energy availability factor (EAF) of Eskom’s generation capacity is shooting through the roof at 70% plus EAF levels due to the increased performance and newly added capacity from these power plants.

Hlophe continued his elaboration of the crisis of leadership by dissecting the root cause of poverty in South Africa.

He said: “For a very long time South Africa has been constituted by two nations: one poor, black and economically disempowered and excluded. The other one white, rich and in command of most of the means of production material and incorporeal resources and advantages of our society.”

These are not my words, these are the words of former president Thabo Mbeki. He uttered these words many years ago. And nothing has changed. Nothing has changed fundamentally since Mbeki made those remarks.

“My question to you, President, is this: through what magic do you hope to forge for a national unity of the oppressor and the oppressed? The exploiter and the exploited, the rich capitalist and the toiling and exploited working class,” Hlophe said.

Athol Trollip, the leader of ActionSA in government, said: “Sadly, last night was a déjà vu moment for myself and all too many South Africans. Your understandable sales pitch for your new government and promises must have sounded fantastic to the naive amongst us. But the electorate showed their jaundice to your last government knowing that these were floods of fantasy. Because, honourable President, we don’t trust you any more, we don’t believe you any more. We haven’t seen a smart city. All we see is broken cities. We have heard your ‘we will do’ speeches so often, but we have never heard ‘we have done so’ speech in Parliament before.”

Today, Eskom is traversing 118 days without load shedding. However, a large part of South Africa, mainly townships, is still suffering electricity blackouts under the banner of “load reduction”.

The president’s speech and the responses of the opposition leaders in Parliament gives an indication of the depth of challenges facing South Africa. There is no realistic plan to come out of this slow economic growth and abyss.

A word of advice, Mr President, start embarking on a path to building mega economic infrastructure assets, particularly base load electricity projects. If any lesson can be learnt in energy in relation to the economy, it is that South Africa ended load shedding by simply fixing, repairing and maintaining broken-down coal power stations and adding new base load coal power station megawatts capacity. It is only then that the country can prosper.

Crown Prince Adil Nchabeleng is president of Transform RSA and an independent energy expert.

* The views in this column are independent of Business Report and Independent Media.

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