South Africa grapples with declining mining and manufacturing outputs as economic challenges intensify

South Africa’s productive sectors began the year on a slippery slope as both mining and manufacturing output plunged in January on the back of persistent economic constraints.

Data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) on Thursday showed that mining production shrank by 2.7% year-on-year in January following a 2.4% decline in December 2024. 

This extends a three-month downward trend and marks the steepest decline since June 2024. 

Stats SA’s principal service statistician, Jean-Pierre Terblanche, said iron ore was the largest negative contributor, retreating by 15.1% while coal, platinum group metals (PGM) and chromium ore also performed poorly. Combined, these commodities make up over 65% of the mining basket.

“On the upside, gold turned positive after 14 consecutive months of decline. Manganese ore, copper, nickel and diamond production also expanded in January, but not enough to push overall mining growth into positive territory.”

Investec economist Lara Hodes said activity in the mining sector was still dragged by the challenges in the logistics sector. 

“Inefficiencies and deficient infrastructure particularly on the logistics front continue to weigh on export potential. However, restoring and expanding infrastructure is a key priority of the government and was emphasized strongly in the recent budget,” Hodes said.

On a month-on-month basis, seasonally adjusted mining production decreased by 1.2% in January 2025 compared with December 2024.

This followed a month-on-month decline of 3.7% in December.

Minerals Council’s senior economist, Bongani Motsa, said this meant that production would need to increase substantially in February and March to prevent a quarterly decline in mining output during Q1 2025. 

Unfortunately, as in the fourth quarter of 2024, Motsa said mining was set to weigh on overall real GDP growth in the first quarter.  

“In terms of the gravity of risks and opportunities, 2025 seems to have started on a negative footing which may not bode well for commodity demand and prices, except for gold,” Motsa said.

“The world’s biggest economy in terms of size as well as purchasing power, the US, is on a protectionist crusade with the levying of tariffs on imports from the major economies, including China, the EU, Mexico, and Canada. The EU and China are South Africa’s most notable export markets, and a dampening of business confidence in these markets will inevitably affect our exports.

“In short, whilst it is difficult to accurately predict the outcome of the trade war, the prognosis is somewhat gloomy. Domestically, there is the ongoing review of the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA) by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR). It is difficult to predict whether the outcome of the review will attract new investment into the sector.” 

Meanwhile, manufacturing output also fell by 3.3% year-on-year in January, deepening from a 1.2% drop in December 2024.  

This marked the third consecutive monthly contraction and the steepest decline since June 2024.

Stats SA's director of industry statistics Nicolai Claassen said the petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastics division was the largest negative contributor, declining by 9.1% in January. 

“Other divisions that experienced a poor month include communication and professional equipment, textiles and clothing, electrical machinery and food and beverages,” Classen said.

“The automotive division continued a downward trend, recording its ninth consecutive month of year on year decline. Its weak performance was mainly due to a decrease in the production of parts and accessories for motor vehicles.”

On a month-on-month basis, seasonally adjusted manufacturing production edged higher by 0.2% in January compared with December 2024.

BUSINESS REPORT